NEW POST-ELECTION POLL: Equality Voters Stopped the Red Wave in Arizona, Rejecting Trump-Backed Candidates’ Extremism and Anti-LGBTQ+ Attacks

by HRC Staff

“Equality Voters” delivered huge margins to pro-equality Democrats up and down the ballot in Arizona, pushing back against extremism and defying pre-election predictions of a massive “red wave”

ARIZONA New polling in Arizona released today by the Human Rights Campaign (HRC) — the nation’s largest lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and queer (LGBTQ+) civil rights organization — shows that the 2022 election defied pre-election predictions of a massive “red wave” in no small measure because Equality Voters pushed back against extremism and voted to protect commonly held values and our democracy.

Across the country and in Arizona, election deniers and right-wing extremists like Kari Lake and Blake Masters lost winnable elections because they advocated views that are out-of-touch with average voters, particularly the huge number of Equality Voters who made the critical difference up and down the ballot. Equality Voters, of which there are nearly 1.3 million in Arizona, are a group of voters modeled to support LGBTQ+ equality. They represented 39 percent of the 2022 national electorate and 46 percent of the 2022 Arizona electorate — a number that reflects the growing political strength of this voting bloc — and tend to be younger and more racially diverse than the electorate as a whole.

“You can’t expect to win in Arizona by nominating extreme candidates, conspiracy theorists, and far-right radicals who advocate extreme positions, including attacks on an LGBTQ+ community that grows more politically powerful every election cycle,” said Bridget Sharpe, the Human Rights Campaign’s Arizona State Director. “Our opponents didn’t generate the landslide they were betting on, thanks to the historic turnout of pro-equality, pro-democracy, and pro-choice voters who showed up to the polls in record numbers to reject extremism and deliver a series of victories for pro-equality candidates, including historic victories for LGBTQ+ candidates, women, and candidates of color. The victories of Governor-elect Katie Hobbs, Sen. Mark Kelly, and Secretary of State-nominee Adrian Fontes prove that spreading lies, hate, and division — the tactics of their opponents — did not work and will never win.”

Equality Voters delivered huge margins to Democrats at every level of the ballot.

  • An 85 percent majority of Equality voters supported Governor-elect Katie Hobbs, 84 percent supported U.S. Senator Mark Kelly, and 82 percent supported Democratic U.S. House candidates.

As predicted, right-wing efforts to spread propaganda about and attack transgender people failed.

  • Right-wing efforts to spread propaganda about and attack transgender people failed. In this survey, we asked voters which specific issues motivated them to vote this year. Inflation (52 percent) ranks first.

  • Less than 10 percent identify gender affirming care for transgender youth or transgender participation in sports as issues motivating them to vote, last on this list.

  • This confirms extensive research prior to the election that found anti-transgender attacks were only effective in riling up extreme members of the conservative base, which is why the attacks were so prominent in paid media during Republican primaries.

  • While the attacks were ineffective with the general electorate and in fact repelled swing voters, they still caused harm, including increasing stigma, discrimination, and violence against the transgender community.

Voters will tolerate no retreat on marriage.

  • With this week’s pivotal U.S. Senate votes on marriage equality underway, a convincing 66 percent of Arizona voters in this fairly conservative, midterm electorate support Congress passing a law to protect the federal right to same-sex marriage, five points higher than the national average (61 percent).

The Human Rights Campaign is America’s largest civil rights organization working to achieve equality for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and queer people. HRC envisions a world where LGBTQ+ people are embraced as full members of society at home, at work and in every community.

Contact Us

To make a general inquiry, please visit our contact page. Members of the media can reach our press office at: (202) 572-8968 or email