Voter Poll Data: LGBTQ+ Voters Proved Decisive in Key Statewide Races And Delivered Senate Majority

WASHINGTON, D.C. —  Post-election state-by-state Voter Poll data reveals that LGBTQ+ voters were a determinative force in several key statewide contests during the 2026 midterm elections. In closely contested races across the country, LGBTQ+ voters represented a larger share of the electorate than the candidates' final margins of victory, delivering overwhelming support that helped turn potential Democratic losses into wins. This includes races that delivered the U.S. Senate majority to Democrats in Ohio, Kansas, Maine, Iowa, South Carolina, and Mississippi–all places where the winning candidates either lost or evenly split non-LGBTQ+ voters. The findings underscore the outsized electoral influence of LGBTQ+ voters and their growing power to shape election outcomes. 

“Across several fiercely contested states, LGBTQ+ voters were the difference between victory and defeat. These numbers make clear that LGBTQ+ Americans are a powerful and consequential voting bloc,” said HRC President Kelley Robinson. “Political leaders should pay attention. LGBTQ+ voters are not a constituency to be overlooked. We are an electorate with the power to decide elections, and these results prove it.”

Among the most consequential findings: 

• Ohio U.S. Senate race: LGBTQ+ voters comprised 7% of midterm voters in Ohio, exceeding Sherrod Brown’s 4.9 point margin of victory. LGBTQ+ voters supported Brown by a 70-point margin, while non-LGBTQ+ voters were evenly divided. 
• Kansas Governor and U.S. Senate race: LGBTQ+ voters represented 6% of the electorate in the gubernatorial contest and supported the Democratic candidate Cindy Holscher by an overwhelming 88-point margin, overcoming the four-point Republican advantage among non-LGBTQ+ voters. In the Senate race, Sen.-elect Adam Hamilton won LGBTQ+ voters by 88 points, while only winning non-LGBTQ+ voters by one point. 
• Maine U.S. Senate race: LGBTQ+ voters accounted for 10% of the electorate, exceeding the 6.3-point margin of victory for Sen-elect Troy Jackson. They supported the Democratic Senate candidate by a 56-point margin, while non-LGBTQ+ voters were evenly divided.
• Nevada Governor Race: LGBTQ+ voters comprised 10% of the electorate, exceeding the 7.6-point margin of victory for Gov.-Elect Aaron Ford. They backed the Democratic gubernatorial candidate by a 74-point margin, while non-LGBTQ+ voters were evenly divided. 
• Mississippi U.S. Senate race: LGBTQ+ voters comprised 5% of the electorate, exceeding the current 0.27 margin as votes continue to be counted. When Colom wins, it will be because of LGBTQ+ voters, as he lost non-LGBTQ+ voters by two points. 
• Iowa U.S. Senate race: LGBTQ+ voters made up 8% of the electorate, exceeding Sen-elect Josh Turek’s 4-point victory. Turek won LGBTQ+ voters by 78 points, but lost non-LGBTQ+ voters by 2 points. 
• South Carolina U.S. Senate race: Annie Andrews won her race by 4.5 points, but split the non-LGBTQ+ vote evenly with Sen. Graham. That means the 5% of voters who were LGBTQ+ proved decisive in the final margin. 

The findings underscore the importance of LGBTQ+ voters in competitive elections and demonstrate how a growing share of the electorate can fundamentally change electoral outcomes when voting cohesively. It is clear that LGBTQ+ voters aren’t simply participating in elections. In critical races, they are determining who wins.