MEMO: Anti-Trans Attacks Will Backfire in Midterms

Republican candidates and their allies continue to pour money into attacks on transgender Americans. According to AdImpact, they have spent more than $280 million on anti-trans broadcast and connected TV ads this cycle — in an effort to distract voters from the affordability crisis and the war in Iran and deflect from their own records. But poll after poll shows the strategy is not working as intended. Evidence suggests it is likely to backfire entirely:

Polls show that voters are fatigued by the ads and do not prioritize the issue.

National surveys consistently find that voters identify affordability, health care, and political corruption among their leading concerns–with issues impacting transgender people coming in dead last:

• Voters Ranked Transgender Issues Last Among 20 Topics They Felt It Was Important For Congress And The President To Focus On. [Navigator Research, 10/1/26]
• Only 11 Percent Of Adults Ranked Transgender Issues As “One Of The Most Important” And More Than Half Of Voters Said It Was “Not An Important Issue.” [AP-NORC, 10/8/26]
• CNN Poll: When Asked To Rank Issues On Extreme Importance, Voters Ranked Trans Issues Last. [CNN, 9/26/26]
• Data For Progress: 70% Of Voters In Alaska Said They Want To Hear Less About Transgender Athletes In Girls’ Sports. [@ryanodonnellpa on X, 10/20/26]

Republican leaders are skeptical of the strategy.

• Former Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan, a Republican, told Texas Monthly: “We’re still running transgender ads. It’s just not resonating… The 8 to 10 percent of voters in the middle who are going to decide this election, when they hear stuff about boys in girls’ sports, they don’t even know what you’re talking about… What Republicans are talking about is just not what the swing voter is really interested in.”
• A Republican strategist connected to Trump’s 2024 campaign told the Washington Sun that the ads risk making it look as if the GOP is the party fixated on the trans community instead of the day-to-day cost of living. 

Pro-equality candidates are standing firm as ads air.

In January, HRC released a playbook showing pro-equality candidates how to define themselves early, fight back against anti-trans attacks, and go on offense. Many took our advice, confronting these ads head-on and redirecting attention to the issues voters care about most. A few examples:

• Christina Bohannan (IA-01) called Rep. Miller-Meeks’ smear campaign “downright pathetic,” drawing on her experience as a high school athlete before calling out Miller-Meeks for siding with drug companies over Iowa families.
• Sherrod Brown (OH-Sen) debunked the falsehoods in Husted’s attacks in a response ad, then hit Husted for voting to block the Epstein files’ release.
• Abdul El-Sayed (MI-Sen) held the line on healthcare for transgender youth, saying those decisions belong to patients, parents, and doctors.
• Sam Forstag (MT-01) refused to back down in a debate, arguing the government has no business in people’s personal lives and calling the attacks a distraction from corruption.
• JoAnna Mendoza (AZ-06) leaned into her story as a mom, then pivots to lowering costs, protecting healthcare, and keeping all kids safe.

These candidates aren’t just doing the right things, it’s the strategic thing — especially given the shape of the electorate:

LGBTQ+ Americans are one of the most powerful (and motivated) voting blocs.

As candidates compete for narrow margins in battleground districts and states, LGBTQ+ voters represent an organized and highly engaged constituency that cannot be overlooked. 

• 12% of American adults are LGBTQ+, and are more than 10% of the population in every battleground state
• 87% of LGBTQ+ registered voters say they will definitely vote in the midterms.
• To watch: Exit polling shared with all the networks on Election Night will show how LGBTQ+ voters turned out nationally and in every battleground state, giving real-time data on their role in key races.

LGBTQ+ Congressional candidates are poised to make history:

• The next Congress could have as many as 17 LGBTQ+ members, the most in U.S. history
• Three LGBTQ+ candidates in top tier red-to-blue districts could flip the House on their own: JoAnna Mendoza (AZ-06), Marni von Wilpert (CA-48), and Cait Conley (NY-17). You also have candidates like Scott Wiener (CA-11) and Jeremy Moss (MI-11) who can make history in their districts. 
• In New Hampshire, Chris Pappas hopes to become the first openly gay man to be elected to the Senate.
• The HRC PAC also endorsed more than 20 trans and nonbinary candidates for state legislature across the country. 

Equality is always on the ballot. But this cycle, it’s also driving the debate and deciding the outcome. That’s the story to follow between now and November 3rd.